A Case Study of BEV Adoption in the US

About the Project

Promoting adoption of energy-efficient vehicles has become a key policy imperative in both developed and developing countries. Understanding the impact of various factors that affect adoption rates, such as: (i) consumer related factors – demographics, behavioral, psychographics; (ii) regulatory factors – policies, incentives, rebates, perks; and (iii) geo-temporal factors – weather, infrastructure, network effects; forms the backbone of KAPSARC’s efforts in the transportation field. Our team is currently developing models at different levels of resolution – micro level models using large-scale data comprising of new car buyers’ profiles and macro level models using aggregated adoption data, to understand and project the effects of various factors at play for the adoption of energy-efficient vehicles.

Key Points

 adoption of energy-efficient technologies is a key factor in improving energy utilization. The ways in which consumers make their decisions – incorporating non-economic factors – is critical to understanding the pace and depth of adoption. We present a way of characterizing current and potential adopters of new technology and the factors that influence their decisions using battery electric vehicle (BEV) adoption in the U.S. as a case study. 

• BEVs have the potential to secure up to ⁓2.4 percent of the U.S. automotive market. 
• The costs of adding the features that potential BEV buyers require to change their purchase decisions, combined with the eventual removal of purchase subsidies, will likely offset the forecasted declines in battery costs. 
• The biggest competitors to BEVs are fuel-efficient gasoline vehicles. Fuel economy instruments such as the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards may work against BEV adoption targets despite BEV sales being strongly incentivized in the CAFE program.